22 JUNE 2015: Yoga day creates 2 Guiness records

Ø  Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday led India in breaking the Guinness World Record (GWR) for the largest number of people doing yoga at one venue — the stately Rajpath which he called “Yogpath” — on a day when 192 countries celebrated the first International Day of Yoga. And, foreigners helped India clock a second record — that of the largest number of foreign nationals in a single yoga lesson with participation from 84 countries.

Ø  Just three weeks ago, June 4 was a ‘Black Day’ for the Indian Army, when possibly, it suffered its highest-ever casualties in peace time; around 20 of its soldiers from the 6 Dogra Regiment were ambushed and killed and many more injured. The convoy was attacked in Chandel district of Manipur, in a well-planned and executed move by elements of the recently formed United National Liberation Front of WESEA (Western South East Asia) using improvised explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons. Thirty-three years ago, in 1982, another Army contingent had suffered a similar deadly attack in the Northeast, claiming the lives of over 15 jawans. Consequently, the Indian Army’s failure to anticipate an attack — which would have been well-rehearsed — and take adequate precautions reflect poorly on its intelligence capability. This is also to say that civilian intelligence agencies have hardly covered themselves with glory. Two specific developments in recent months in the region should have alerted the agencies to the fact that something was brewing. The first was the decision of the NSCN(K) to unilaterally abrogate its ceasefire with the Indian government, thus signalling a return to the path of violence. The second was the formation of the “rainbow” coalition of several Northeastern militant outfits, including groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland NSCN(K), the Paresh Baruah faction of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the National Democratic Front of Bodoland NDFB(S), led by Songbijit, and several Meitei outfits such as the KCP, the KYKL and the PULF. Each of these outfits has an outreach to countries not too well disposed towards India — including Pakistan and China — though actual links have been rather tenuous. There could not have been a stronger signal than this that a new phase in militancy in the Northeast was about to commence. The surgical strikes, on June 9, against two militant camps (mainly occupied by NSCN(K) elements) across the border in Myanmar, by para commandos of the 21 Para Regiment — Special Forces were thus very timely as official figures of the militants who were killed vary from 20 to 50 people. The action was conducted under the principle of ‘hot pursuit’ though there could be some ambiguity about employing this phrase, since the action had taken place after a gap of almost five days. If India now seeks to “sail close to the wind” as far as this doctrine is concerned, it must understand the inherent dangers in following a U.S.-Israel analogy. Pakistan would seem to be the obvious target given its spate of provocations. Even though there has been no mention of Pakistan by Indian interlocutors on the present occasion, Pakistan has already reacted strongly. The imputation that “Pakistan is not Myanmar” suggests that it could resort to any incursion with its “disproportionate response” strategy. “Disproportionate response” is already a part of Pakistan’s official Army doctrine. The intrinsic danger in all this is that while Pakistan may appear dysfunctional, it is, by no means, a failed state. It remains essentially unpredictable, though, even at the best of times, rational decision-making has not been Pakistan’s strong point. Decision-making in Pakistan has generally tended to be bereft of cognitive thinking. Therefore, it cannot be expected to adhere to the definition of rationality viz., “behaviour that is appropriate to specified goals in the context of a given situation”. With the Army dominating the commanding heights of policy in Pakistan, it is they who will determine the manner of retaliation. It may not be an “olive branch”, but more probably a “nuclear one”. This is not implausible, for Pakistan has been steadily increasing its nuclear and missile capabilities, mainly targeting India. Hence, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Pakistan would see in this so-called new “doctrine of pre-emption”, an opportunity to deploy its nuclear and missile capabilities against India. As it is, Pakistan has constantly harped on India’s non-existent “Cold Start Doctrine”, and its response has been to build and deploy battlefield and tactical nuclear weapons to deal with any incursion by India’s armed forces. Pakistan’s nuclear capability is today buttressed by its Shaheen “missile family” — the Shaheen-I, the Shaheen-II and the Shaheen-III category missiles, which are capable of hitting most parts of India. Those who preach the virtue of adopting a new “muscular response strategy” vis-?-vis our neighbours — Pakistan included — need to be careful not to overstate their case. India’s current policy incorporates a degree of strategic restraint, and it is a well-thought out one. It has served India’s purpose well. Realistically speaking, there is no substitute for a well-calibrated policy.